12:02 a.m. And the night is up. Very abruptly. Baldiwn & Martin close down halfheartedly with Martin clutching Bigelow’s Oscar and making an Avatar joke.

12:00 a.m. Bigelow, Boal, Shaprio are up there as well as Renner, Mackie & Geraghty! That was some serious celebration on the guys part. And that’s six Oscars for THL.

11:59 p.m. And, Holy S*** that was fast. Tom Hanks just awarded The Hurt Locker with Best Picture. (!!)

11:56 p.m. Bigelow is even hotter while nervous. She honors her fellow nominees (incredibly gracious, these women have it down), as well as the people of Jordan, and finally to the people fighting in Iraq. This is incredibly well deserved, even though the story of THL winning became a bit omnipresent near the end (this is the business of storytelling, after all).

11:55 p.m. Kathryn Bigelow wins Best Director!

11:53 p.m. We got it, Barbara. A woman could win for the first time. Or a black person. And we know how much Avatar made. I met you in my dining room once. I should have warned of screwing up this moment then!

11:52 p.m. Barbara Streisand presents Best director. Hmm, wonder why…

11:48 p.m. Sandra for the win. And finally, an actor that acknowledges her fellow nominees. She’s funny and gracious and emotional and mature. Powerhouse speech, Bullock. Middle All of America just died and went to heaven.

11:47 p.m. Sean Penn, in usual jittery-ness, presents the award. And….

11:45 p.m. Stanley Tucci on Meryl: “quite simply, the best.” Duh.

11:44 p.m. Whoa there, that’s Oprah. She’s presenting for Gabourey Sidibe. Come back to Duke, Oprah!

11:42 p.m. Michael Sheen admits he was attracted to Helen Mirren. Hottie. Peter Sarsgaard on Carey Mulligan. British people, everywhere.

11:40 p.m. Forest Whitaker on Sandra Bullock. His voice is so soothing. “Tangible”, “magical”. Say “Mufasa”, Forest, say it again, “Mufasa”!

11:39 p.m. And now begins the Best Actress clip montage. Too short, but this will balance out what’s to come.

11:33 p.m. Who’s drinking White Russians tonight? Big Lebowski challenge! At this point, I’m pretty sure Bridges is one of those incredibly functioning high dudes. Do they come engineered that way? Regardless: respect.

11:32 p.m. And The Dude has won! Finally! Fifth times a charm old boy. There’s the standing O.

11:31 p.m. Colin Farrell on Jeremy Renner. Yes, Farrell just made references to blacking out in Mexico and spooning with Renner. That’ll keep the gay watchers up for another hour tonight. That will also help soothe the pain after Firth’s soon-to-be loss…

11:29 p.m. Ted Tim Robbins on Morgan Freeman, talking Shawshank stories. My sister asks: “is winning Best Actor now contingent on being a nice guy?” Truth.

11:28 p.m. Julianne Moore on Colin Firth. Moore, another person who has been snubbed countless times. These tributes are getting quicker post-Pfeifer. PP, it’s a new term. Dig it.

11:26 p.m. Michelle Pfeifer is done about Jeff Bridges. Thank god. Now Vera Farmiga on Jorge Cluny. I have a slight to serious infatuation with Farmiga so this is fine.

11:24 p.m. This is confusing: a mashup of all five actors clips for Best Actor? And now all their costars on stage to present them? Oh god, they are telling personal stories. Last year was a failure with these awkward tributes. Academy, why don’t you learn!?

11:21 p.m. Side note: when the f*** is the Academy going to honor Michael Haneke? He was the filmmaker of the decade, honestly one of the most visionary directors out there right now. Faith in Academy dwindling even more.

11:17 p.m. Argentina wins for The Secret in Their Eyes. Well, none of their seven athletes won at Vancouver. Spanish garble! Ahh, Penelope Cruz flashbacks from last year.

11:15 p.m. Almodovar & Tarantino are on stage introducing Foreign Language Film. What.Country.Will.Win. Olympics 2010 round two! Down with Canada!

11:09 p.m. Keanu. Kung Fu. Locker. Hurt.

11:07 p.m. That’s 4-3 for Hurt Locker to Avatar. Looks like THL might be sweeping tonight.

11:06 p.m. Tyler Perry onstage for Best Editing. Baldwin & Martin in snuggies made up for Perry’s general awkwardness.

11:05 p.m. The Cove wins. Louie Psyihoyos, the grey haired director who just got cut off, was at the screening at Full Frame. Listening to him talk was incredible.

11:01 p.m. Matt Damon presents Best Documentary. It’s great to see that almost all of these nominees were at Full Frame last year.

10:56 p.m. That final line about how real life is just as good as Pandora was definitely scripted for PR reasons. I mean, Pandora vs. Durham. Case in point.

10:55 p.m. Avatar wins. If they lost, that would be a Mo’Nique smack in da face from the Academy.

10:54 p.m. Gerard Butler & Bradley Cooper (standard Hollywood eye-candy for soccer moms who were just about to put their Jodi Piccoult book down and turn off the tube but decided to stay on instead) are presenting Best Visual Effects.

10:52 p.m. Up wins for Best Score. Michael Giacchino talks fast. He also scores Lost. So I can’t hate. This one he says, is for the kids with parents who don’t support creativity. Awkward turtle.

10:50 p.m. Oh, god, now the Avatar part. WHY AREN’T YOU BLUE. DIDN’T YOU SEE THE MOVIE. Bring back Ben Stiller, he knows whatsup. Also, what’s going on with this background? Looks like Apple funded it. I’m half expecting a huge iPad to appear on the podium at the end of the show.

10:47 p.m. Now quick, minute long dance interpretations for each score. We live in a mashup, ADD world! Girl Talk 4 prez! Wait, is that dude during the Hurt Locker part wearing a cardigan? What!? This Up bit is “Tea Partay” meets Step Up 2 the Streets.

10:45 p.m. And now J-Lo & Aussie Sam Worthington presenting the Best Score nominees. Was that a cheesy extraordinary-league line? Fail.

10:45 p.m. Quick update: we have Hurt Locker at 3 awards, Avatar at 2.

10:38 p.m. Demi Moore & James Taylor on guitar introduce the “In Memoriam” montage. My parents, as usual, know so much more.

10:35 p.m. Sandra Bullock presents cinematography: “dude, make me look good”, Sandra tells every DP. This is probably my favorite and most anticipated category. Also, a bit up in the air…. and Avatar wins. Mauro Fiore. And this dude is Italian! F*** yeah! Arezzo shout-out.

10:29 p.m. And, speak of the devil, the token young hot white chick (Elizabeth Banks) doing the wrap-up for the geek awards. That was about 30 people with 30 Oscars for a 15 second clip. Efficient, Academy.

10:28 p.m. Side-note: they always have young hot people (Zoe & Carey, Anna Kendrick & Zac Efron) present the double awards.

10:26 p.m. Swedish bro back for round two as THL wins Sound Mixing. Another guy comes back on stage. Bring Bigelow on stage! Bring Renner! Bring your green hat!

10:25 p.m. The Hurt Locker wins its second award of the night. Swedish bro with some serious flow wins for Sound Editing.

10:23 p.m. Morgan Freeman doing voiceovers? No way. And he knows it. Ah, self-deprecation. Flashback to The Dark Knight. Maybe the Academy is trying to make up for not changing the BP nominees to 10 last year? TDK would have definitely been nominated.

10:21 p.m. Well, that was a lot of knives, screaming blonde hot chicks, blood, and teeth.

10:16 p.m. I smell a video transition. Yup, this is the random honoring of  horror movies. Paranormal Activity reference & gay joke do nothing for this update. Oh great, now we have I-was-a-nobody-two-months-ago-Lautner and Kristen Stewart. And now a horror montage.

10:10 p.m. The Young Victoria wins. Emily Blunt’s performance was super-overlooked. Too many f***ing Brits, yah? Sandy Powell is the first person to honor other nominees / other costume makers instead of herself and the people on her film. Very gracious. The.Selfish.World.We.Live.In.

10:08 p.m. Closet whores-es Tom Ford and Sarah Jessica Parker present Best Costume. “A Single Man! A Single Pound!” Martin’s on fire.

10:05 p.m. We saw that, man-who-ran-across-stage. Sigourney Weaver (fellow Chapin grad, for K&M and MHL) is on stage to present best art direction. Avatar wins its first Oscar of the night. Avatar for Avatar.

10:02 p.m. Firth presents An Education. Brit for Brit.

9: 59 p.m. Mo’Nique wins, no surprises. Kendrick & Fermiga were amazing but there was no way Mo’Nique’s Mary was to be beat. “It can be about the performance, not the politics”, she says. She references Hattie McDaniel’s 1939 win for Gone with the Wind.

9:55 p.m. Robin Williams presents Best Supporting Actress and makes a balls joke. Typical.

9:53 p.m. Latifah presents the wrap-up from the Governor’s Ball. Gordy Willis, the DP for The Godfather, is such an incredible talent. Roger Corman & Lauren Bacall also received statues.

9:51 p.m. Incredibly emotional speech from Fletcher. No one can talk about this film without sobbing. That was deserved, but too bad that Reitman & Up in the Air will go empty handed tonight. Shame.

9:50 p.m. Whoa there, Geoffrey Fletcher wins for Precious. That’s a big upset.

9:47 p.m. Rachel MacAdams & Jake Gyllenhaal present best adapted. Remember Bubble Boy, Jake? Had to call you out. The MV crowd (if you’re out there) will enjoy that one.

9:42 p.m. Star Trek wins for Best Makeup. Ben Stiller is officially the best part of this show as of now. Possible future host?

9:38 p.m. This is absolutely incredible. Stiller is two-for-two, after last year’s Joaquin Phoenix impersonation. Also, his tail is amazing. James Cameron finally breaks and starts laughing.

9:38 p.m. BEN STILLER AS A NA’VI.

9:37 p.m. Danish-American short The New Tenants wins best live action short. Go Denmark!

9:36 p.m. Wait, was that Kanye with a red wig dressed in a purple dress!?!

9:35 p.m. Music by Prudence wins best doc short. Poor guy has to run so far on stage to accept the award. And, out of nowhere, this crazy red-headed woman runs on stage!

9:27 p.m. Carey Mulligan & Zoe Saldana are on stage now to present the shorts. Cut to: all these now accomplished filmmakers basically convincing us why shorts are important. Time well spent as no one ever sees shorts these days. Logorama wins for best animated short. This French winner be crackin’ some jokes! He could give Baldwin & Martin a run for their money.

9:22 p.m. Wow, there is a huge group of Brat Packers and stars of the great JH films. Macauly Culkin is on stage among others.

9:17 p.m. Molly Ringwald & Matthew Broderick are on stage to introduce a John Hughes montage. This is amazing. Home Alone clips get me every time.

9:15 p.m. Wow, it goes to The Hurt Locker‘s Mark Boal. This could mean a sweep? Or maybe this ups Avatar‘s chances for BP? Who knows. In other news, Boal looks eerily like Up in the Air director Jason Retiman.

9:14 p.m. They’re presenting Best Original Screenplay. This is where people’s Oscar prediction brackets will start to break. The (500) Days snub still stings.

9:12 p.m. Love the self-depracating humor, Alec, as you present Tina Fey. Aaaand RDJr. being the man making fun of non-actors.

9:07 p.m. Commercial side note (gasp!). Temper Trap’s “Sweet Disposition” is used in the new Diet Coke ad. What is it with mainstream companies using formerly underground indie rock songs in commercials? First Phoenix, then Grizzly Bear, The XX, now this? What is cool anymore?

9:05 p.m. Chris Pine present District 9. Films like D9 are why the Oscars upped it to 10 films nominated for BP.

9:03 p.m. T-Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham for Crazy Heart‘s “The Weary Kind” (3 for 3). That song was absolutely incredible as was the film. Great year for the names Ryan Bingham and T-Bone. Just generally.

9:00 p.m. Amanda Seyfried & Miley Cyrus present “Original Song”. These bitches be nervous!

8:59 p.m. And the lack of surprises continue, as Up wins for Best Animated Feature. This guy, Pete Docter has been behind a lot. Pixar domination.

8:58 p.m. Cameron Diaz & Steve Carrell present animated feature. Cut to: animated characters talking about being nominated. That alligator from Princess & The Frog just made a Halle Berry joke. Yes.

8:50 p.m. As Ryan Reynolds introduces The Blind Side, his Proposal costar Sandra Bullock’s would be trite movie if not for her, I’d like to point out how creepy / awesome Stanley Tucci was for The Lovely Bones. Waltz was amazing and was obviously going to win, but hey.

8:48 p.m. No surprised here as Christoph Waltz wins for Inglourious Basterds. Go Austria. Talk of “ships” and “travels” to America. “He even bowed like a German” – my father.

8:45 p.m. Now we have Penelope Cruz presenting Best Supporting Actor. I am loving this combination of clips for each actor nominated.

8:43 p.m. “He scored his dope from Woody Harrelson”, says my mom, of Jeff Bridges.

8:41 p.m. Jewish jokes in Hollywood are always hits! Huzzah!

8:40 p.m. If he wasn’t before, he is now after that Avatar joke with 3-D images of sprites all over the screen.

8:39 p.m. And Woody Harrelson is high too, according to S&A.

8:38 p.m. Golf clap for dame joke. And wow, these two just brought it up a notch with the Meryl jokes. Who else can deliver threesome and Nazi memorabilia jokes back to back?

8:36 p.m. What’s 5 x 2? Of course! Hollywood is stupid!

8:34 p.m. Finally Baldwin & Martin are here. Self-congratulatory introduction for Steve. And nothing for Alec. Yup, everyone read that recent Vanity Fair article.

8:32 p.m. And Neil Patrick Harris is singing and dancing the song “No One Wants to do it Alone”. Alec Baldwin is far too large to move this much on stage. Maybe / hopefully Steve Martin is too high since that great / only salvageable part from It’s Complicated.

8:31 p.m. Soo… the point of that was… My mom says “goofy”.

8:30 p.m. And now, finally, the show. Starting off with some strange showing off of all the Best Actor & Best Actresses on stage.

8:27 p.m. And now, the goddess herself, Streep. Remember your hot daughter from last year? Where is she? Bring. Her. Back.

8:24 p.m. Kate Winslet. You are perfect. Oh, now Gabby Sidibe. You are great. Oh, and Taylor Lautner: why are you a celebrity? “Watching the Oscars at home while growing up”? You mean, last year?

8:23 p.m. Jeff Bridges is officially the man.

8:22 p.m. THE DUDE IS HIGH.

8:21 p.m. I always wondered what those people at Price Waterhouse Cooper had to do to have those envelopes. Murder? Arson (too soon, Crystal Magnum)? The ability to make Miley Cyrus not annoying?

8:15 p.m. SJP & Matthew Broderick. Broderick, you look better than you did at the Wine & Spirits in Amagansett. Those were rough times. And many handles. And hope you liked the painting, Carrie.

8:14 p.m. Interviewing J-Lo about Oscar dresses. “It has to have that ‘wow’ factor.” Really, J-Lo? I thought it required huge breasts and tape.

8:12 p.m. Oh, and if you couldn’t tell, we are definitely still on the red carpet. Oh and now some Oscar flashbacks, trying to legitimize the reasons behind making the shift from five films to ten. Ah, history. Ah Casablanca.

8:11 p.m. Mirren and Plummer. They’re not old, they’re “grown”. How PC!

8:10 p.m. How many times ABC shuffle around their reporters to interview the same three people (Bullock,  Mo’Nique, Ryan Reynolds)? The answer is many.

But will the world watch? Seeing as James Cameron’s 3-D epic Avatar has made over $2.5 billion worldwide, one would assume as many people would tune in to see if self-proclaimed King of the World will hit Eminent Archon / Emperor / Almighty  status. Back in January, it looked like the coast to Best Picture & Director was iceberg-less for Cameron, but the rise of The Hurt Locker over the recent months has made the waters far more dangerous.

The Hurt Locker, the Iraq film that grossed $20 million (or 1/125th of Avatar‘s earnings), stormed back after the Golden Globes defeat, winning the PGA and DGA’s top prizes. Director Kathryn Bigelow, Cameron’s ex-wife, could very well hoist her ex’s head, confirming the David-and-Goliath comparisons.

But the tide then took another, albeit slighter, turn. Controvertial negative campaigning directed towards The Hurt Locker, mostly done by the Los Angeles Times, and that whole producer-not-invited-to-Oscars scandal, have put the little Iraq engine that could back on par with it’s blue-skinned behemoth rival. There’s even talk that the two might cancel each other out, leaving the statue for Quentin Tarantino’s Nazi-revenge guilty pleasure Inglourious Basterds. Generally speaking, however, it’s between the former lovers, a story that all forms of media have clearly eaten up.

Acting wise, only one real race remains hot. If the Bigelow-Cameron battle mirrors David-Goliath, then Sandra Bullock-Meryl Streep is…. Ed Norton-Ben Stiller in Keeping the Faith? Luke-Han Solo for Princess Leia? Any conflict that happened in Coyote Ugly? (or, judging by their Critic’s Choice antics, maybe a domestic dispute between Portia de Rossi & Ellen Degeneres?)

Across the other categories, surprises seem minimal. Best Original Screenplay and Cinematography could hinge on how voters feel about the top prize’s victor (letting in Basterds or Michael Haneke’s The White Ribbon, respectively) . Then again, who knows? There could be a few, unforeseen icebergs ahead.

Without further ado, the predictions:

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker (alternate: Avatar)
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow (alt. James Cameron)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges (alt. George Clooney) **Recess Snub: Sam Rockwell
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock (alt. Meryl Streep)
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Waltz (alt. Woody Harrelson)
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique (alt. Anna Kendrick) **Recess Snub: Samantha Morton
Best Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (alt. The Hurt Locker) **Recess Snub: (500) Days of Summer
Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air (alt. Precious & District 9)
Best Cinematography: Avatar (alt. The Hurt Locker & The White Ribbon)
Best Animated Feature: Up (alt. Coraline)
Best Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon (alt. A Prophet)
Best Documentary: The Cove (alt. Food, Inc.)
Best Song: “The Weary Kind” Crazy Heart
Best Score: Up Michael Giacchino

The 82nd Annual Academy Awards air tonight at 8 p.m. on ABC.

Courtesy NYMag

Sam Rockwell’s performance in Moon is the kind of artistic effort for which the term tour de force was coined.

Let’s check imdb really quick. Take a look at the number of actors that are listed as a part of Duncan (formerly Zowie) Jones’ (formerly Bowie) directorial debut: there’s technically 10, but anyone who’s actually seen the film knows that you can basically knock that number down to one and a half (after all, Kevin Spacey deserves some credit for his voice work).

On its own, this doesn’t mean anything; God knows I could pay two guys to follow me around for an hour and a half with a camera and a boom mike—that doesn’t mean I should win an Academy Award. But nobody wants to watch that. Not only did I want to watch Rockwell’s inhabitation of lunar-based Sam Bell, I was compelled to. I couldn’t look away.

Rockwell tackles multiple different alterations on the same basic type with a deft hand and nuanced tone, covering basically every inch of the emotional spectrum. At some times, he’s forced by the script to go pyrotechnic; others, a stunned silence is all he has to work with, and he makes us feel that silence like Bell feels the vacuum of space.

Moon is a tremendous film—visually stunning and a conceptual thrill—and it deserved an Oscar nom itself, but Rockwell’s acting is something else. From start to finish, he drags the audience in the wake of his revelations and discoveries, and this is made all the more impressive because he’s working off nobody else.

Let’s face it: Morgan Freeman had Nelson Mandela and George Clooney had the 37 times he’d already played his Up in the Air role (though he once again played it well). Rockwell had a script, a rookie director and his own talent, and with that he achieved something genuinely, authentically new. And there’s few higher compliments I can pay than that.

A small, independent film often has to choose what bait is best to dangle in front of Academy voters. Time and resources are slim and must be employed as efficiently as possible. Oscar campaigning is a reality—a reprehensible one sometimes, yes—but, as my preferred Oscar blogger Sasha Stone points out fairly often, winning an Oscar is “all about the story”. And there is no story without a campaign.

The Messenger, a quietly powerful but equally lost home-based Iraq war drama, did fairly well this Oscar season, but its strongest aspect went sorely overlooked. Samantha Morton plays Olivia Pitterson, a widowed, single mother who becomes romantically linked to the soldier who broke the news of her husband’s death. Morton can recite poetry with her eyes, emote heartbreak with a mere glance. When Olivia first hears the news of her husband’s death, she is uncannily calm and receptive. In a mostly silent scene in her kitchen, as Ben Foster’s Will does his best to woo her, Olivia heartbreakingly straddles her own emotional wall. Morton expresses the pain of this temptation perfectly, all while maintaing the scene’s palpable eroticism.

Morton, at least, has been nominated before, in 2000 for Woody Allen’s Sweet and Lowdown and in 2004 for Jim Sheridan’s magical, unforgettable In America. Perhaps her past success propelled the producers to put Woody Harrelson at the forefront of their campaign for his role as Captain Tony Stone. And they succeeded for Harrelson, and even picked up an Original Screenplay nod to boot.

At least Morton has deserving companions.  A Single Man‘s breathtaking and boozy Julianne Moore, as well as the ravishing women of Inglourious Basterds Melanie Laurent and Diane Kruger, all went nominee-less.

That’s not to say that the nominees weren’t well deserved. Up in the Air‘s Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick played two of the most realistic, nuanced female roles of recently memory; Maggie Gyllenhaal more than held her own against Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart; and Mo’Nique gave the most shell-shocking performance of the year, one destined for Oscar history. (OK, fine Penelope Cruz’s fiery turn in Nine wasn’t all that necessary).

But don’t fret, Morton. No one realized it would be such a year for the supporting ladies.

In the press release, Ganis mentioned that the Oscars were going back to its roots, as the ceremonies from the years 1931-1943 featured anywhere from 8-12 nominees for Best Picture. For example, Casablanca which won Best Picture in the 16th Annual Academy Awards, was one of nine nominees.

Many accredit the change-up with two major reasons. First, the Oscar ratings have been struggling (though the ratings of last year’s telecast were up) and a fresh change like five more BP noms will dust off the show’s formulaic feel–much better than that agonizing, everybody-wins praise they gave out last year. Second, box office favorites such as last year’s The Dark Knight and WALL-E were snubbed in the best pic race for more “Academy” (read: stuffy) films such as The Reader and Frost/Nixon. More nominees mean a broader scope–who knows, there might even be a comedy (dare I say The Hangov… nah, not just yet) or a legitimate indie in there.

As many critics make top ten lists each year, the change won’t be too visually dramatic for Oscar followers. And, seeing as the Academy used to broaden its scope in its earlier years, the change isn’t merely a marketing tool to get more viewers and garner more buzz but also a way to honor the institution’s heritage. And more best picture nominees might just be the cure-all for the economic recession–it did help to rid America of the Great Depression back in the 30s and 40s…

All in all, it will be refreshing to see more films up for the prize and it will make the race more dramatic and less predictable. It will also (finally) send a jarring wake-up call to all those Oscar blogger “experts” that have fine-tuned their prediction formula over the years.

In Oscar world, America might just be the land of opportunity after all.