Ben Button: Does it have the legs to win? Maybe not. Courtesy Boston Globe.

After weeks of build-up, our final Oscar prediction is here. Check out our previous predictions and don’t forget to come back Sunday for our Oscar LIVE BLOG. Because there is no point in addressing the nature of this award, we’ll just skip to the nominees and winner Slumdog Millionaire.

The Nominees
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It’s been close to 15 years since Forrest Gump eased its way into the hearts of Americans and critics alike. Now, another sweeping, American epic is up for Oscar gold. But Benjamin Button, in all its cinematic and technical glory, lacks an real emotional oomph. Expect David Fincher’s 3-hour film to pick up some technical wins–maybe even Best Supporting Actress–but to falter in this circle of glory.

Frost/Nixon
Ron Howard’s adaptation of the Broadway hit is the safest Oscar bet–like every other Ron Howard picture. Frost/Nixon is a much easier picture to decipher than Benjamin Button, but it still really lacks punch. It’s a great film–not to say every Best Picture has deserved its win–but Frost/Nixon just doesn’t feel like a best picture.

Milk
Like, say, every other category (especially Best Directing), Gus Van Sant’s Harvey Milk biopic is playing second fiddle to Slumdog Millionaire. That said, it seems the best candidate to upset Slumdog and it has Prop 8 to thank for that.

The Reader
If The Reader wins, we can only hope the Oscars don’t live to see an 82nd year. Harvey Weinstein’s brilliant campaigning or not, Nazis sex loses.

Slumdog Millionaire
For the past two Academy Awards, the little film that could was a comedy. This year, it’s Danny Boyle’s gimmicky drama about a little boy from the slums overcoming the odds, striking it rich and finding love. It’s a hopeful story in the Barack Obama presidency that everyone is saying is destined for Oscar glory. Well the hype killed it for me, I can’t deny that it will win. Thus…

The Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s not exciting. It’s not going to draw viewers. It would be more exciting if The Dark Knight or especially WALL-E were fighting in this category, but predictability is a fact of the Oscars.

• Sean Penn takes Best Actor
• Anne Hathaway or Meryl Streep take Best Actress
• Someone other than Amy Adams takes Best Supporting Actress
• Kung Fu Panda takes Best Animated Feature Film (Really?)
• Heath Ledger, Danny Boyle and Slumdog still win for Best Supporting Actor, Best Directing and Best Picture, respectively

And because we can’t overhype it enough, don’t forget our LIVE BLOG of the Oscars Sunday at 7 p.m.

Charlie: anyway, want to open this Pandora’s box of snarky anti-hollywood jibes?
Andrew: yeah. so the Oscars
Charlie: I mean, it gets more and more depressing each year. Let’s be honest; the whole “Oscar movie” v.s. “actually-good-movie” battle becomes more and more true every year.
Andrew: That’s incredibly true. And the Oscars have this phenomenal ability to turn a movie that is pretty good into something that’s totally insufferable. Juno. Slumdog Millionaire.
Charlie: I know. I really am a firm believer that Slumdog is exploiting the economic crisis; it’s such a feel good film that clearly is profiting off how pissed off and poor everyone is getting.
Andrew: It’s exploiting poverty. Turning it into not-that-high art.
Charlie: True true. The academy is totally playing up its “hey-we’re-so-global” image (I mean, lets get serious: has the academy every cared about India before?). But it’s a great film. It really is blowing past everything right now; that seems to be a new trend, films that are little-engine-that-could types becomes their own little Hollywood stories and win everything.
Andrew: It really is. And the only tragedy is there are so many great films—better films—that deserves all that buzz and don’t get it. I think the best film I saw in 2008 which should have been up for Best Foreign Film last year. No nomination. The Academy might as well be running the OJ Simpson case circa 1997. Injustice abound.

Charlie: Speaking of foreign films, lets talk about the absurd choice of The Reader in Best Picture. Who saw The Reader? I don’t think people in England even saw The Reader. What a crap title too. “Nazi Woman has affair with young boy” is much more exciting, no?
Andrew: Exactly. That at least makes me kind of want to see it. But I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t. I’m not even sure Harvey Weinstein saw it. And wasn’t Liam Neeson or one of the Fiennes brothers—one of those British guys—in it? Whatever happened to him?
Charlie: Ralph: I think he was too pissed off that no one saw “The Duchess” and responded by not even seeing “The Reader”
Andrew: I think more tragic than all the nominations Harvey Weinstein ate up–and he certainly loves to eat–are the films that didn’t get it. I have my reservations about the Dark Knight, but it deserved that Best Picture nod. And WALL-E. WALL-E.
Charlie: I know, WALL-E is the film most grounded in cinematic history that satisfied both children and ultra-pretentious film theorists and, most importantly that blew every single film this year out of the water. But, it’s an animated film, so it clearly cant be THAT intelligent.
Andrew: Underage Nazi sex though. It’s brilliant!
Charlie: They didn’t do it for the gays with Brokeback, do it for the kids with WALL-E?
Andrew: For the kids. For the environmentalists. Heck, even the gays get it a little bit with WALL-E. After all, Hello, Dolly! played a pretty prominent role in that movie. Just do it for all of us, Academy.
Charlie: Seriously. They did do a few things right though with this years nominations. Take Best Supporting Actress especially. Some of the great performances are in that category.
Andrew: Right. And it’s probably the only category that has any diversity. The best part being—and no offense meant to the always incredible Amy Adams and Marisa Tomei—that none of the front runners in the category are white.
Charlie: I’m so glad Taraji P Henson got some love for her performance in Benjamin Button. She went from heartwarming hooker in Hustle and Flow to actually heartwarming old person in a nursing home in Ben Button.
Andrew: She’s the most deserving nod that movie had. I mean, it was good. But Brad Pitt? Seriously? The Actor in a Leading Role category, were it not for Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke, would be a total travesty.
Charlie: Yeah; I mean, Brad Pitt was just playing himself. Why Brad Pitt and no Leo DiCaprio? Revolutionary Road. My God. Talk about a movie screwed by the economic crisis.
Andrew: I’m not the biggest Revolutionary Road fan, but I think it’s more deserving that a lot of stuff in there.
Charlie: It’s a depressing film about the dying souls of suburban individuals because of the system—way too relevant in the bad way. Yeah, I think it definitely was a bit much at times. But Kate Winslet’s nom for The Reader is clearly a figurehead. She really should have been nominated for this. She is pitch-perfect as April, and gets every nuance of the role down
Andrew: Harvey Weinstein must be in bed with everyone at the Academy. And for that, I really feel bad for those voting buffoons.
Charlie: Yeah, I also think maybe Penelope Cruz got in there with him, because he is seriously campaigning for her….
Andrew: But a question: Slumdog is obviously going to take Best Picture. Who should take it though?
Charlie: I mean, if the Ocar goes to the film that is cinema for cinemas sake, I think Benjamin Button should get it. Milk’s got some solid support behind it (talk about great timing… cough prop 8… cough). Frost/Nixon is your “respected” and “mature” film of the bunch
Andrew: The thing is though, Frost/Nixon is a Ron Howard movie. As much as I loved Happy Days, I just don’t want him to win. It was certainly respectable, but it’s something my mom would like—kind of blase.
Charlie: If The Dark Knight and WALL-E were in here, it would be so much more exciting. And people might actually watch the Oscars.
Andrew: But hey. Hugh Jackman is hosting. Even if Milk loses, there’s still something for the Broadway crowd.
Charlie: Alright, your three biggest snubs—quick.
Andrew: Syndecdoche, NY for Best Original Screenplay. WALL-E for Best Picture. And it’s a little off and maybe didn’t even qualify for the category (or the Oscars, because who knows how those rules work) but My Winnipeg for Best Documentary.
Yours?
Charlie: since you’ve already taken WALL-E for best picture…
I’d say: 1) Kristin Scott Thomas for I’ve Loved you so long (and ILYSL for best foreign film– a category that, understandably, is teeming with possible contenders) 2) No Darron Aaronofsky; Best director for the the Wrestler (WTF? Stephen Daldry? Really?) 3) The Dark Knight and Chris Nolan for Picture and Director. Maybe maybe someday they will get recognition (oh and  shout-out to Winslet for rev. road)
oh that was in no particular order by the way
Andrew: Awesome. Well, I think we can something this up pretty easily. The Oscars suck, and good films seldom get any love from Harvey Weinstein’s f-ck buddy, the Academy. I we weren’t live blogging it Sunday, we probably wouldn’t watch the show either.

David Fincher on the Ben Button set. Courtesy Time Out NY.

The Award
There is virtually no question that Danny Boyle is going to win this award. But it is still fun to speculate, right?

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
1996′s Trainspotting marked Danny Boyle’s foray into the hearts of critics. In 2002, he did 28 Days Later, marking the release of perhaps the most mature zombie movie ever made. And now, after winning every award this season, he is a lock for the Oscar. And my heart breaks a little, if only because Loveleen Kandan seems just as deserving, but is getting no credit.

Stephen Daldry, The Reader
His third nomination. His third loss. Andrew Stanton? Christopher Nolan? Could’ve done better, Academy.

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The badboy of the group, Fincher has the coolest resume of these nominees. Benjamin Button is also the most cinematically pure picture up for this many awards years. It is rooted in such a deep cinematic ethic that it really speaks to Fincher’s ability as a director. Don’t expect Fincher to win, but this nomination is at least justice for the great work he’s done in the past, especially Se7en and Zodiac.

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Richie Cunningham has two Oscars under his belt. He is a safe choice here, but Frost/Nixon, in all its glory, was just too underwhelming to merit any major wins–Best Picture or Directing. Good effort, Ron. See you in a few years.

Gus Van Sant, Milk
Milk is a biopic and a straightforward one at that. It is certainly good and the actors shine, but there is no reason that this second-place finisher will win. However, I would love to see Gus Van Sant win. A win for Milk would be disappointing because he has so many other films that showcase his RISD education in the mainstream, but having an east coast-educated director win? That would be awesome.

The Winner: Danny Boyle
Really? There’s no point in even speculating otherwise. Maybe Gus Van Sant or David Fincher could get a good share of the votes, but not really.

For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not. Below, Silver’s results, including one upset we never would have anticipated.