Ben Button: Does it have the legs to win? Maybe not. Courtesy Boston Globe.
After weeks of build-up, our final Oscar prediction is here. Check out our previous predictions and don’t forget to come back Sunday for our Oscar LIVE BLOG. Because there is no point in addressing the nature of this award, we’ll just skip to the nominees and winner Slumdog Millionaire.
The Nominees
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It’s been close to 15 years since Forrest Gump eased its way into the hearts of Americans and critics alike. Now, another sweeping, American epic is up for Oscar gold. But Benjamin Button, in all its cinematic and technical glory, lacks an real emotional oomph. Expect David Fincher’s 3-hour film to pick up some technical wins–maybe even Best Supporting Actress–but to falter in this circle of glory.
Frost/Nixon
Ron Howard’s adaptation of the Broadway hit is the safest Oscar bet–like every other Ron Howard picture. Frost/Nixon is a much easier picture to decipher than Benjamin Button, but it still really lacks punch. It’s a great film–not to say every Best Picture has deserved its win–but Frost/Nixon just doesn’t feel like a best picture.
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So the Oscars have been leaked onto the Internet. And the winners, are hardly surprising. Naturally, the Academy has denied any truth to this list. But if the Oscars are anything like the Golden Globes, then by the Anne Hathaway logic we can assume that
- Sean Penn takes Best Actor
- Anne Hathaway or Meryl Streep take Best Actress
- Someone other than Amy Adams takes Best Supporting Actress
- Kung Fu Panda takes Best Animated Feature Film (Really?)
- Heath Ledger, Danny Boyle and Slumdog still win for Best Supporting Actor, Best Directing and Best Picture, respectively
And because we can’t overhype it enough, don’t forget our LIVE BLOG of the Oscars Sunday at 7 p.m.
The print version is here. The whole thing is below–formatting be damned. Shazam.
Charlie: anyway, want to open this Pandora’s box of snarky anti-hollywood jibes?
Andrew: yeah. so the Oscars
Charlie: I mean, it gets more and more depressing each year. Let’s be honest; the whole “Oscar movie” v.s. “actually-good-movie” battle becomes more and more true every year.
Andrew: That’s incredibly true. And the Oscars have this phenomenal ability to turn a movie that is pretty good into something that’s totally insufferable. Juno. Slumdog Millionaire.
Charlie: I know. I really am a firm believer that Slumdog is exploiting the economic crisis; it’s such a feel good film that clearly is profiting off how pissed off and poor everyone is getting.
Andrew: It’s exploiting poverty. Turning it into not-that-high art.
Charlie: True true. The academy is totally playing up its “hey-we’re-so-global” image (I mean, lets get serious: has the academy every cared about India before?). But it’s a great film. It really is blowing past everything right now; that seems to be a new trend, films that are little-engine-that-could types becomes their own little Hollywood stories and win everything.
Andrew: It really is. And the only tragedy is there are so many great films—better films—that deserves all that buzz and don’t get it. I think the best film I saw in 2008 which should have been up for Best Foreign Film last year. No nomination. The Academy might as well be running the OJ Simpson case circa 1997. Injustice abound.
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David Fincher on the Ben Button set. Courtesy Time Out NY.
The Award
There is virtually no question that Danny Boyle is going to win this award. But it is still fun to speculate, right?
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
1996’s Trainspotting marked Danny Boyle’s foray into the hearts of critics. In 2002, he did 28 Days Later, marking the release of perhaps the most mature zombie movie ever made. And now, after winning every award this season, he is a lock for the Oscar. And my heart breaks a little, if only because Loveleen Kandan seems just as deserving, but is getting no credit.
Stephen Daldry, The Reader
His third nomination. His third loss. Andrew Stanton? Christopher Nolan? Could’ve done better, Academy.
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As we prepare for our LIVE BLOG of the 81st Academy Awards, our attention seems to be falling almost exclusively on the Oscars. And this post fits the bill. But it is an especially exciting awards season post. As a huge fan of Mr. Fivethirtyeight (and his Esquire column), I am delighted to have reason to bring his writing to this arts-focused blog. Nate Silver used his fancy statistics to predict the winners in the four acting categories as well as Best Picture and Best Director. His predictions make for an interesting read and, with the exception of Taraji P. Henson upseting Penelope Cruz (and Mickey Rourke beating Sean Penn, if you fall into the Milk camp like me), they are largely unsurprising. Nonetheless, here’s a snippet of the whole article, which you can read over at New York Magazine.
For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not. Below, Silver’s results, including one upset we never would have anticipated.
