There’s been no shortage of statistical activity surrounding this presidential election. Often it’s been mentioned along with the Bradley Effect and underperform-or-overperform arguments for both candidates, both of which add uncertainty to the situation.
But, after pressing all those calculator keys and supercomputing till the cows come home, Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight.com recently noticed something very simple emerge:
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.
McCain essentially needs to win either Ohio or North Carolina, or his chances of winning, according to this analysis, drop to near zero percent. With this in mind, we’ll be watching very closely as Ohio’s and North Carolina’s results pour in relatively early on Tuesday. If either state gets colored in Duke (or Tar Heel, I suppose) blue, and if we’re to trust Nate Silver, we’ll be able to start writing our headlines early that night.
Sen. Obama is scheduled to speak at UNC-Charlotte Monday as part of a barnstorming tour the day before the election in which he plans to visit key battleground states. This is his eighth visit to North Carolina–he was here most recently last Wednesday in Raleigh. His speech is scheduled to begin at 5:30 p.m. Look out for full Chronicle coverage of the event in Tuesday’s issue.
Barack Obama with a rocket launcher? Sarah Palin toting an assault rifle? It’s not typical campaign material, but those eager for more personal interaction with the candidates can do so soon after EA releases their new patch for the video game Mercenaries 2: World in Flames. The extension, expected to be available sometime in November, will feature Obama and Palin as, well, mercenaries. But instead of camo gear, Obama will keep his characteristic suit and Palin her red jacket and defining hair-do. Keep an eye on 00:41 and 1:01 to see the two in full combat mode.
Sen. Barack Obama will be back in North Carolina Monday for a rally near Charlotte. This will be Obama’s eighth rally in North Carolina. No word from the campaign yet on the exact location or time of the event. Meanwhile, Sen. John McCain will hold a rally in Tampa, Fl. the same day.
