Filed at 10:21 p.m.
Elliot Keever - Zachary Tracer/The Chronicle
Elliot Keever, 9, prays for Sen. John McCain’s victory while watching State Sen. Kay Hagan’s victory speech.
No Crowd - Zachary Tracer/The Chronicle
At another TV, the crowds moved to the food tables once Hagan’s victory speech came on.
Filed at 9:50 p.m.
Neal Anderson (right) - Zachary Tracer/The Chronicle
With Ohio and Pennsylvania both blue, Sen. John McCain’s chance for a win seem to be growing slimmer. Yet at the GOP Victory Party, “It’s not over” is on everybody’s lips. Some crowd around computers, checking county by county vote totals, holding out for a come-back win for McCain in Ohio or Sen. Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina. Others sit and watch WRAL or FOX News, fingers crossed as the anchors continue calling states.
Neal Anderson of Raleigh is among the watchers. Wearing a McCain cap, he too maintains that the race is not over. And yet, he speaks as if it is.
“It’s ironic how the person who invented campaign finance reform got outfinanced,” he said. “It was the biggest sales pitch I’ve seen in my life.”
Filed at 7:53 p.m.
At The North Carolina Republican Party election celebration, those who have come early are hopeful that Sen. John McCain can pull out a victory tonight.
“I’ve been feeling a bit pestimistic,” said Aloma Crenshaw, a McCain supporter. “It’s going to be a tight race and hopefully we can pull out a victory tonight.”
Regardless of the outcome, this American will support our new president. “I’m still hopeful for McCain and I have worked hard for him,” she said recalling her work at the Republican National Convention earlier this year. “But Obama will be my president and I will support him.”
David and Faith Michael - Zachary Tracer/The Chronicle
Standing off to the side, watching FOX News, David and Faith Michael said they think the election is going to be very close. The Michaels, of Wilmington, N.C. , said they voted early for McCain after waiting in a 45 minute line.
filed at 3:46 p.m.
Those anxious to start tallying election returns can digest the results of the earliest vote totals released from Dixville Notch and Hart’s Location, NH. The small towns, which have a combined population of 115 people, traditionally open their polling sites just after midnight on Election Day in order to produce the nation’s first official election results.
Sen. Barack Obama defeated Sen. John McCain by a tally of 15 votes to six in Dixville Notch. The Democrat also outpaced the Republican 17 to 10 in Hart’s Location. Could this be a sign of things to come? It is certainly an unusual tradition, but don’t jump to too many conclusions: the most recent polls have shown Obama with a comfortable lead in the state.
There’s been no shortage of statistical activity surrounding this presidential election. Often it’s been mentioned along with the Bradley Effect and underperform-or-overperform arguments for both candidates, both of which add uncertainty to the situation.
But, after pressing all those calculator keys and supercomputing till the cows come home, Nate Silver from FiveThirtyEight.com recently noticed something very simple emerge:
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.
McCain essentially needs to win either Ohio or North Carolina, or his chances of winning, according to this analysis, drop to near zero percent. With this in mind, we’ll be watching very closely as Ohio’s and North Carolina’s results pour in relatively early on Tuesday. If either state gets colored in Duke (or Tar Heel, I suppose) blue, and if we’re to trust Nate Silver, we’ll be able to start writing our headlines early that night.